During meetings with members of the Indian diaspora in the US, Rahul Gandhi was repeatedly addressed by his hosts in the Indian Overseas Congress as the "future Prime Minister of India". Though some observers argue that "one Karnataka does not a summer make" (apologies to the swallow), the mood in the Congress is upbeat.
The postponement of the much talked about opposition unity conclave in Patna, scheduled for June 12, may be viewed against this backdrop. A meeting hosted by Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, on his own turf, would have shone the strobe light on him.
Nitish Kumar, the chief of the Janata Dal (United), had apparently announced his intention of hosting the meeting without consulting with the stakeholders. That Sharad Pawar, Mamata Banerjee, Uddhav Thackeray and Sitaram Yechury were inclined to attend the meet had been indicated by their respective parties. Others, significantly the Congress leadership, remained ambiguous.
Nitish Kumar called off the event when it appeared that many of the 20-odd parties he is trying to corral against the BJP in 2024 were likely to send their second-tier leadership. While doing so he asserted that whenever the meet did take place, he expected party chiefs to attend. He had similarly postponed a meeting he had announced for May 12.
Nitish Kumar, accompanied by his Deputy and Rashtriya Janata Dal supremo Tejashwi Yadav, has been crisscrossing the country to meet opposition stalwarts. The idea of the Patna conclave germinated when the duo met with Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee in Kolkata in April-end. Mamata Banerjee, who had led demonstrations against Jayaprakash Narain in 1975, wanted the "JP spirit" to be reignited by Nitish Kumar. (The irony - the JP movement was against the Congress, BJP's precursor; Jan Sangh was its bulwark.)
Soon after the Kolkata visit, Nitish Kumar announced that Patna will host an opposition gathering on May 12. This was scrapped as Nitish Kumar later said that some participants were busy in Karnataka (only Congress and Janata Dal Secular were).
The Nitish Kumar-Tejashwi Yadav duo have had two meetings with Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge at his 10 Rajaji Marg home since April. As per the new High Command norm of Congress, Rahul Gandhi was present. Talking points like social justice and caste census, which Nitish Kumar reportedly suggested, were reflected in Rahul Gandhi's Karnataka campaign speeches.
After the Karnataka result, Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav met with Congress leaders Kharge and Rahul Gandhi in Delhi on May 24. A week later, when the June 12 announcement was made from Patna, it was seen as a unilateral act by most parties being invited.
Although the Congress headquarters did not respond, there were indications that neither Kharge nor Rahul Gandhi were available, and the party was yet to decide on its representative for the meeting. Now June 23 has been thrown up as a possible date. Details on the date and venue are opaque so far.
When asked about the unity bid during his interaction at the National Press Club, Washington DC, Rahul Gandhi said the opposition was "pretty well united" and that "a lot of good work is happening on the ground". He said that an undercurrent was building up, which had the potential of springing a surprise in 2024. The Congress is apparently on board with Nitish Kumar in the unity bid.
However, there is a feeling that if the meet is in Patna, the position of the Congress will be that of a mere participant. The fact that the Congress is a junior coalition partner in Patna (as it is in Chennai, Ranchi, and Mumbai) may also come up in the deliberations. But the Congress prefers top billing. It favours the driver's seat rather than being driven around.
Parallel to Nitish Kumar's 2024 unity initiative, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)'s Arvind Kejriwal, accompanied by Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann, has been meeting with various opposition parties to rally support for their fight against the Centre's proposed legislation on the control of services in Delhi. The Congress, which has the largest presence in parliament after the BJP, has not responded to Arvind Kejriwal's appeal for support. The AAP chief's request for a meeting with Kharge and Rahul Gandhi is pending for over a fortnight now. Congress leaders in Delhi and Punjab have opposed any truck with AAP. Kharge is yet to reveal his stand.
A section of the Congress leadership is in favour of revisiting the poll arrangement in Delhi that was brokered by NCP chief Sharad Pawar in 2019, which remained stillborn. The 2019 formula, hammered out at a meeting in Pawar's 6 Janpath home in Delhi, envisaged the Congress ceding five seats to AAP in Delhi and contesting two. Kapil Sibal, then in Congress, wanted the formula to be 4-3 to include his Chandni Chowk seat. This derailed the arrangement. Kharge is inclined to negotiate but from a position of advantage.
Congress sources say Kharge is of the opinion that in 46 seats - Gujarat (26), Delhi (7) and Punjab (13) - the Congress's chances of winning on its own appear bleak. So, it could consider sharing turf with AAP, which has grown by the attrition of traditional Congress votes while the BJP vote share soared.
In his role as Leader of Opposition in Rajya Sabha, a position he has held since before he became Congress president, Kharge has a working rapport with AAP's Rajya Sabha leader, Sanjay Singh. This rapport tends to override the friction between the two parties in Delhi and Punjab. If the Congress revisits its stand on AAP, it may pave the way for similar give-and-take with other parties as well.
Kharge will have to factor in the reality that Kejriwal's appeal for support on the floor of Parliament is not accompanied by a matching gesture on the ground. On June 8, AAP plans a Tiranga Yatra in Haryana, where it failed to draw more votes than NOTA (None of The Above) in a recent election. Its target is not the voters of either the BJP or the Chautala-led INLD (Indian National Lok Dal), but the Congress.
AAP has planned a similar campaign from June 18 in each district of Rajasthan. Its plans for two other Congress-ruled states, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, are not finalised, but the intention has been expressed. A pre-2024 plan will also have to overcome the conflict of interest the Congress has with the Trinamool in Bengal, the Bharat Rashtra Samithi in Telangana, and the CPI (M) in Kerala.
There is a move to suggest that the venue for June 23 be changed to Shimla, where the Congress Chief Minister of Himachal Pradesh, Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu, could make appropriate arrangements. This could also facilitate the participation of Sonia Gandhi, who has been spending much of her time in Mashobra near Shimla because of her health.
Sonia Gandhi is the chairperson of United Progressive Alliance (UPA) as well as the leader of the Congress Parliamentary Party. Her presence will provide heft. Besides, she enjoys a better rapport with other parties than both Kharge and son Rahul Gandhi. There was a buzz over Shimla as a possible venue when Nitish Kumar made his now-cancelled announcement.
As it stands, the unity effort is in the works, but the venue and conditions of the conclave are not decided.
It is worth noting that the first effort at building a front against Indira Gandhi was initiated by NT Rama Rao in 1983 after his Telugu Desam ousted the Congress from its Andhra (then unified) citadel. The first conclave's 40th anniversary was on May 28. The participants of the anti-Modi exercise may like to revisit the contours of pre-1984 opposition conclaves as they proceed on their uphill bid for 2024 unity.
Rahul Gandhi said in the US that 60 per cent of India did not vote for the BJP in 2019, while exuding confidence on unity efforts for 2024. Politics is not simple arithmetic. It's also algebra, trigonometry, and calculus.
Tailpiece: "Double engine", the war cry of the BJP, seems to be the motto of the opposition as well. Kharge-Rahul, Nitish-Tejashwi, Kejriwal-Bhagwant Mann - the number of "double engine" initiatives seems to be multiplying.
(Shubhabrata Bhattacharya is a retired Editor and a public affairs commentator.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.
